Relations between Azerbaijan and Iran have been increasingly strained in recent years, driven by deep-seated tensions and conflicting geopolitical priorities. The growing mistrust between the two nations has exacerbated their bilateral discord, as diverging national interests and inconsistent political interactions continue to widen the gap. Tehran’s fluctuating and, at times, provocative rhetoric has played a significant role in aggravating the situation, creating a complex dynamic.
Despite the challenges, Baku has consistently emphasized the importance of dialogue and regional stability, opting for a measured and pragmatic approach rather than escalating tensions. However, Azerbaijan has made it unequivocally clear that it will not remain passive in the face of actions that threaten its sovereignty, security, or dignity as a nation. This firm stance reflects a commitment to safeguarding its interests while advocating for a stable and cooperative regional environment.
The recent speech by the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, once again cast a spotlight on the state of Azerbaijan-Iran relations, and the outlook remains far from positive. The primary factor contributing to the strained ties is Iran's unconstructive and strategically shortsighted actions toward Azerbaijan. This pattern of behavior has persisted for an extended period, intensifying in the aftermath of the Second Karabakh War. Iran’s approach, marked by a lack of pragmatism and disregard for the principles of good neighborly relations, continues to undermine trust and stability in the region.
The Second Karabakh War marked a turning point in Iran's policy toward the South Caucasus, particularly in its approach to Azerbaijan. Initially, Iran sought to position itself as a mediator during the conflict. However, the war and its aftermath revealed deeper motives in the Islamic Republic's foreign agenda, with significant consequences for bilateral relations. During the war, Iranian officials expressed public support for Azerbaijan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei stated, “All of Azerbaijan’s territories have been liberated from occupation.” However, post-war developments painted a different picture. In August 2021, Azerbaijan obtained evidence that numerous Iranian trucks, bearing Armenian license plates, were entering territories under the temporary control of Russian peacekeepers without Baku’s authorization. These vehicles reportedly transported mines or weapons rather than humanitarian aid, exacerbating tensions between the two neighbors.
In September, amidst escalating strains, Iran announced plans for large-scale military exercises near its border with Azerbaijan. Brigadier General Kioumars Heydari, Commander of the Iranian Army’s Ground Forces, revealed that the drills would involve armored vehicles, artillery, drones, electronic warfare units, and helicopters. This display of military power further strained relations, underscoring the growing mistrust between Tehran and Baku. These developments signal a shift in Iran’s strategy toward the South Caucasus, with actions that have not only undermined its diplomatic posture but also strained its ties with Azerbaijan.
The attack on the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran on January 27, 2023, marked a significant deterioration in relations between Azerbaijan and Iran. President Ilham Aliyev described the incident as a "terrorist act". It crossed a red line for Azerbaijan, leading to a suspension of diplomatic relations between the two countries.
Two years have passed since the attack, and as of now, the perpetrator has not been executed. For a period, the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran ceased operations due to security concerns. However, following negotiations, the embassy resumed its activities on July 15, 2024, at a new location. The consular department officially resumed its services on December 15, 2024, ensuring the continuation of services for Azerbaijani citizens and others.
However, number of positive developments began to emerge between Iran and Azerbaijan, signaling a potential thaw in their diplomatic ties. One of the most significant milestones occurred in May 2024, when the two countries celebrated the completion and inauguration of the Khudaferin and Giz Galasi hydroelectric power plants on the Araz River. The event was attended by the leaders of both nations, symbolizing a renewed spirit of cooperation. The late Iranian President Raisi emphasized the importance of this partnership, stating, “We were one of the first countries to openly declare that Karabakh is the territory of Azerbaijan. I want to reiterate that we are always ready to demonstrate our cooperation based on the regional revival program in Karabakh.”
In addition to this, a landmark event in military relations occurred in November 2024. Azerbaijani and Iranian special forces conducted joint military exercises in Iran’s Ardabil province. The Iranian side released official footage of the training, which conveyed a sense of renewed camaraderie and strengthened cooperation between the two nations.
However, this apparent reconciliation proved short-lived. Despite the positive momentum from these events, relations between Iran and Azerbaijan once again began to deteriorate after only a few months, with underlying tensions resurfacing.
While the joint military exercises and diplomatic milestones offered a glimmer of hope for closer ties, the fragility of their relationship was evident, as old issues continued to shape the interactions between the two countries.
This time, the situation took a particularly humiliating turn for Azerbaijan and its leader, Ilham Aliyev, especially with the provocative actions in Ardabil, where a local mullah spread defamatory statements about Azerbaijan. In response to these actions, President Aliyev expressed his outrage, stating: "This mullah from the city of Ardabil has repeatedly used offensive language against Azerbaijan, the Azerbaijani people, and even me. The question is, how does the person who appointed him to this position view such behavior?"
Aliyev made it clear that such a figure should be removed from his post, emphasizing that such provocations were unacceptable and warranted immediate action. The situation further deepened the rift between the two nations, as these statements symbolized a disrespectful and hostile gesture toward Azerbaijan.
Overall, Iran is walking on thin ice, displaying a certain level of duplicity. It openly smiles in face, publicly calling Azerbaijan as a close country, while behind backs, it pursues a policy that is anything but friendly. This contradiction between its words and actions fosters a sense of mistrust and uncertainty in the relationship.