Interview with Pakistani political analyst and security expert, strategic communications specialist Yasir Masood.
- What is Pakistan's role in the South Caucasus, especially in light of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's recent visit to Baku?
- Pakistan’s role in the South Caucasus reflects strategic pragmatism and solidarity with its allies. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s February 2025 visit to Baku strengthened ties with Azerbaijan, leading to investments of $2 billion in infrastructure, energy, and mining sectors, with completion expected by April 2025. The visit also resulted in agreements on the duty-free export of Basmati rice to Azerbaijan and cooperation on the Machike-Thallian-Taru Jabba White Oil Pipeline. Energy security was a key topic, culminating in LNG procurement agreements with SOCAR.
Defense cooperation reached new heights with a $1.6 billion deal for JF-17 Block III fighter jets, enhancing Azerbaijan’s aviation capabilities. This aligns with the trilateral "Three Brothers" framework (Pakistan-Turkey-Azerbaijan), countering external interference in the region. Pakistan’s support for Azerbaijan’s stance on the Karabakh issue and its non-recognition of Armenia underscores mutual solidarity.
This partnership serves as a counterbalance to India’s support for Armenia, which aims to disrupt regional stability. Pakistan also prioritizes regional connectivity, including access to Gwadar port, strengthening its position as a key trade hub between South Caucasus and Central Asia.
- Does Pakistan plan to join the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), and how will it be regulated?
-Pakistan’s decision to join the INSTC, formalized in June 2024, is a strategic step toward advancing regional connectivity. The INSTC network, spanning 7,200 kilometers, facilitates access to Central Asian markets with a combined GDP exceeding $300 billion. This integration will also enhance Gwadar Port’s role in Eurasian trade via the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Pakistan will adhere to INSTC’s foundational agreements, ensuring national security and multilateral diplomacy, especially within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Overcoming India’s obstructionist tactics is key, alongside upgrading railway infrastructure and securing Balochistan to protect transit corridors. Additionally, Pakistan will deepen cooperation with Russia and Iran to mitigate U.S. sanctions on Iran and ensure the corridor’s economic viability.
Economic benefits of joining INSTC include reducing freight costs by 30-40%, complementing the $62 billion CPEC investment, and offering an alternative to the Suez Canal, enhancing Pakistan’s stabilizing role in Eurasian trade.
-What is the nature of defense cooperation between Azerbaijan and Pakistan? How does Pakistan view Azerbaijan’s role in ensuring regional stability?
- Defense cooperation between Pakistan and Azerbaijan includes joint training programs, pilot exchanges, and discussions on joint defense production. This strengthens Azerbaijan’s defense capabilities and solidifies the trilateral alliance with Turkey, known as the "Three Brothers," which counters regional blocs like India-Armenia.
Pakistan views Azerbaijan as a key stabilizing force in the South Caucasus, especially after Azerbaijan’s role in the 2020 Karabakh War. Pakistan supports Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, recognizing its sovereignty over Karabakh. This stability supports critical infrastructure projects like the INSTC and strengthens energy security through LNG agreements with SOCAR.
The partnership also provides a geopolitical counterweight to India’s regional ambitions and reinforces Pakistan’s role in maintaining regional balance through multilateral cooperation.
- To what extent can India’s military supplies to Armenia alter the balance of power in the region?
- India’s military supplies to Armenia, including advanced air defense systems and rocket launchers, are aimed at addressing Armenia’s military gap following the 2020 Karabakh defeat. However, Azerbaijan maintains a technological and numerical edge, bolstered by Turkish drones and Pakistani defense exports.
While India’s supplies pose a challenge to Azerbaijan’s air operations, Azerbaijan’s strategic depth, including tanks and drones, continues to neutralize these advancements. The strategic alliance between Pakistan and China further weakens India’s influence, as both prioritize economic connectivity over militarization.
Pakistan emphasizes that India’s militarization disrupts regional stability, contrasting with Pakistan’s focus on diplomatic conflict resolution and economic cooperation through CPEC. Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over Karabakh remains firmly supported by Turkey and Pakistan, limiting the impact of India’s arms shipments.
-What factors have contributed to the growing defense ties between India and Armenia? How significant is France’s role?
- The growth in defense cooperation between India and Armenia is driven by Armenia’s need to diversify its arms imports following its defeat in Karabakh and Russia’s reduced capacity. India seized this opportunity, supplying $600 million in weaponry, which also supports its "Made in India" defense export initiative.
France plays a parallel role, supplying night vision equipment and potentially Mistral missiles. While France’s actions are driven by its historical ties with Armenia and rivalry with Turkey, it is not directly coordinated with India.
This partnership aligns with India’s broader Eurasian strategy, leveraging Armenia’s role in the INSTC. However, it risks militarizing the South Caucasus, contrasting with Pakistan and China’s emphasis on economic integration. The zero-sum approach of India and France overlooks the resilience of the Azerbaijan-Turkey-Pakistan bloc, which maintains regional stability.
- What are India’s objectives in the South Caucasus? Can India strengthen its regional interests through military cooperation?
- India’s objectives in the South Caucasus focus on countering the influence of Pakistan and Turkey, securing trade routes via the INSTC, and expanding defense exports under the "Made in India" initiative. Military cooperation with Armenia aims to challenge Azerbaijan, but Azerbaijan’s military superiority neutralizes India’s strategic calculations.
India’s reliance on military cooperation overlooks the resilience of existing regional alliances. Long-term stability in the South Caucasus is better achieved through economic partnerships rather than militarization, a principle supported by Pakistan’s foreign policy and its commitment to peaceful, cooperative frameworks.
-What is India’s strategic interest in Armenia? To what extent is India’s support linked to competition with China?
-India’s strategic interest in Armenia is driven by countering the influence of Pakistan and Turkey, expanding defense exports, and ensuring stability for the INSTC. Armenia’s vulnerability post-Karabakh war made it a key market for Indian defense exports, expected to reach $5 billion by 2025.
India’s support for Armenia directly challenges the Azerbaijan-Turkey-Pakistan axis, reflecting its broader rivalry with China. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) investments in Azerbaijan and Georgia, along with ties to Pakistan and Turkey, position Beijing as an indirect competitor. India’s support for Armenia seeks to weaken China’s economic influence in the South Caucasus, where BRI projects, like the Anaklia port and SOCAR enterprises, highlight Beijing’s growing presence.
-Given that India remains the largest buyer of Azerbaijani oil, how does it balance economic cooperation with Baku while supporting Armenia militarily?
- India’s balancing act—maintaining energy ties with Azerbaijan while supporting Armenia militarily—exposes strategic limitations. Pakistan and China view India’s actions as destabilizing and undermining the regional balance shaped by CPEC and the Azerbaijan-Turkey-Pakistan trio.
India’s focus on countering Pakistan (which influences its support for Armenia) risks drawing it into secondary geopolitical contests, while the China-Pakistan partnership provides strategic depth. India's strategy, while tactically active, lacks the consistency and sustainability of the Beijing-Islamabad alliance, which remains crucial for Eurasian stability.
-Is the military cooperation between France, India, and Greece with Armenia a strategic response to the Azerbaijan-Turkey-Pakistan alliance?
-The military cooperation between France, India, and Greece with Armenia serves as a strategic counterweight to the Azerbaijan-Turkey-Pakistan alliance. India’s arms supplies to Armenia directly counter Pakistan’s influence. France’s provision of equipment and Greece’s military exercises aim to contain Turkish influence in the South Caucasus.
However, Azerbaijan’s strategic depth, supported by Turkish drones and Pakistani exports, ensures its stability in the region. Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over Karabakh, firmly supported by Turkey and Pakistan, remains unchallenged, making India and France’s actions a less effective counterbalance to the Azerbaijan-Turkey-Pakistan alliance.