Interview with a Kazakhstani expert, Professor of the Institute of Management, Doctor of Economics, Director of the Institute of Economic Policy, member of the National Kurultai under the President of theRepublic of Kazakhstan Kairbek Arystanbekov.

-What is the role of the Middle Corridor in the new global logistics and international trade?

- Amid global changes in the world economy, competition between freight delivery routes connecting China, the European Union, and the United States is intensifying. These three economic centers collectively account for approximately 60% of global GDP, making them key players in the logistics and transportation sector. 

One of the most promising routes is the Middle Corridor – the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR). It serves as a strategic alternative to traditional routes, linking China to Europe via Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. Further transportation of goods is carried out either through the railway network via Türkiye or by sea through the Black Sea, providing access to European markets. 

In recent years, the importance of the Middle Corridor has increased due to instability in other logistics chains. For example, geopolitical crises and sanctions have created significant obstacles for transit routes passing through Russia. Meanwhile, transportation via the Suez Canal, which previously played a crucial role in international trade, has been threatened by geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea and attacks on commercial vessels. According to experts, cargo traffic through the Suez Canal has already decreased by 50–55%, forcing businesses to seek alternative routes.

- What advantages make the Middle Corridor more attractive for international freight carriers compared to traditional routes?

- One of the key advantages of the Middle Corridor is its flexibility and security. Unlike routes passing through conflict zones or subject to sanctions, this path runs through relatively stable regions. Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Georgia have resilient political and economic systems, which reduces the risks of supply chain disruptions. Moreover, the lack of dependence on potentially unstable routes, such as the Suez Canal or Russian transit corridors, makes the Middle Corridor a reliable alternative for international freight carriers. 

Another important advantage is the reduction in delivery times. Additionally, the Middle Corridor benefits from active expansion of its transport infrastructure. Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Georgia are investing heavily in the modernization of railway lines, port terminals, and logistics hubs. In Kazakhstan, railway connections with China and the Caspian region are being actively developed; in Azerbaijan, the Baku International Sea Trade Port is undergoing modernization; and in Georgia, the logistics capacity of Black Sea ports is being improved. These investments enhance the route’s throughput capacity, ensuring its efficiency and sustainable growth in freight volumes.

- What economic benefits do Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan gain from the development of the Middle Corridor?

- Without a doubt, China is one of the main beneficiaries of the Middle Corridor’s development, as this route significantly expands its transportation capabilities within the global "Belt and Road Initiative". Through this corridor, China gains an additional stable and efficient route for exporting goods to Europe, reducing risks associated with congested or unstable alternative routes. 

Currently, annual trade turnover between China and the EU passing through the Caucasus reaches $700 billion, highlighting the Middle Corridor’s strategic importance as a key link in international trade. 

Beyond China, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan also derive significant economic benefits from this route. One of the key advantages is the increase in state revenues through transit fees and taxes related to logistics activities. Another crucial aspect is the stimulation of the non-oil sector of the economy. The implementation of major infrastructure projects and the growth of transit volumes contribute to economic diversification, helping reduce dependence on raw material exports. 

The modernization of transport hubs, railways, and ports enhances logistics processes, transforming the region into a strategic freight center between Asia and Europe. The development of logistics infrastructure improves the speed and efficiency of cargo transportation, making the route more attractive to international companies and investors. 

Additionally, the expansion of the Middle Corridor plays a vital role in attracting foreign investments. Improving transport infrastructure and creating favorable conditions for international cooperation facilitate capital inflows into the logistics sector. 

Thus, the Middle Corridor not only serves as a reliable alternative to traditional routes but also acts as a powerful driver of economic growth for the countries it passes through.

- How do the countries of the Middle Corridor compete with alternative routes such as the Northern and Southern Corridors? 

- The Middle Corridor, as an alternative route for international freight transportation, offers a significant reduction in delivery times compared to traditional maritime routes. Specifically, the transit of non-oil cargo, including container shipments, via the Middle Corridor’s rail and road networks takes an average of 20–25 days. This is considerably faster than transporting goods from China and Southeast Asia by sea around the Cape of Good Hope in southern Africa, which takes at least a month and a half. 

Freight transportation between East and West via the Suez Canal also remains a longer process, averaging 53 days. However, with further development and increasing competitiveness of the Middle Corridor, transit times could be reduced to 10–13 days on the route from Beijing (China) to London (United Kingdom). For comparison, shipping goods by sea from Europe to Asia via Africa takes 45–62 days, while transit of goods from China to Europe via Russia takes approximately 32 days.

- What key measures need to be taken to address the challenges of the Middle Corridor and enhance its competitiveness in the global transport market? 

- Despite its advantages, the Middle Corridor faces several unresolved issues that require active intervention and coordination from the governments of the participating countries. In its current state, the route is not yet fully competitive with traditional transport corridors in terms of cost, reliability, and delivery speed. As a result, its use is primarily justified when alternative routes lack capacity or within trade between countries directly involved in the Middle Corridor. 

One of the main challenges is the absence of a unified coordinating operator, which complicates interaction between participating countries and makes transport planning more difficult. Additionally, underdeveloped port infrastructure, outdated terminals, and insufficient cargo-handling capacities at Caspian Sea ports slow down freight processing, creating bottlenecks in the logistics chain. Further complications arise due to disjointed transport processes at transfer points between ports and railways, leading to delays. Customs barriers also remain a significant obstacle. 

To successfully develop the Middle Corridor and transform it into a competitive route, a comprehensive approach is needed. This includes modernizing transport infrastructure to improve efficiency and capacity, digitizing logistics to streamline operations, standardizing customs procedures to reduce delays, and establishing an effective coordination mechanism among participating countries. 

Only through a holistic strategy can the Middle Corridor become a reliable and highly efficient alternative to traditional transit routes.

-How does the cooperation between Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan within the Middle Corridor influence their positions in the global economy?

-In recent years, Azerbaijan has been actively implementing large-scale projects to expand the Middle Corridor’s capacity, including the development of its combined maritime and railway segments. One of the key components of this transport corridor is the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) railway, which ensures uninterrupted cargo transportation between Europe and Asia. The Baku International Sea Trade Port also plays an important role and is undergoing modernization to enhance the efficiency of logistics operations.

As part of the strategy to develop the Middle Corridor, Azerbaijan actively cooperates with other participating countries. A significant milestone was the signing of a roadmap in November 2022 between Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Türkiye. This document outlined a list of priority investment projects and a set of measures aimed at optimizing the route’s operation, increasing its capacity, and eliminating bottlenecks in transportation infrastructure.

Another key step was the creation in June 2023 of a joint logistics company involving Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Kazakhstan. This project aims to improve coordination between the participating countries and develop a unified strategy for managing cargo flows. Through this cooperation, the goal is to enhance transportation efficiency, reduce delivery times, and create more favorable conditions for international shippers.

The close cooperation between Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan within the development of the Middle Corridor has a positive impact on the economies of both countries. Strengthening logistics and transportation infrastructure contributes to the growth of the transport and logistics services sector, increases the volume of transit shipments, leading to higher revenue from transit duties and fees, unlocks the transportation and transit potential of the region, and has a positive effect on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of both countries through increased trade activity and investments in infrastructure projects.

- How does Kazakhstan balance between Russia, China, and the West in the current geopolitical situation?

- The approaches and principles for maintaining balance among the world’s leading powers are outlined in the "Foreign Policy Concept of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2020–2030", approved by the Presidential Decree. 

In recent years, Kazakhstan has significantly strengthened its position on the international stage, establishing itself as a peaceful, open, and predictable state committed to the principles of multi-vector diplomacy and constructive engagement. The country consistently pursues a pragmatic foreign policy, acting as a reliable partner in addressing key global and regional issues, including security, sustainable development, economic cooperation, and humanitarian initiatives. 

Kazakhstan actively contributes to shaping and implementing the international agenda by participating in dialogue platforms, peacekeeping missions, and integration processes. At the same time, the primary priority of Kazakhstan’s foreign policy remains the comprehensive protection and promotion of national interests, as well as the strengthening of mutually beneficial relations with international partners based on the principles of mutual respect, sovereignty, and international law.

- How has Azerbaijan's role in the region changed after its victory in the Karabakh conflict?

- Azerbaijan is rapidly strengthening its position as a key trade and logistics hub in the South Caucasus, playing a crucial role in regional and international economic processes. With significant natural resources, including oil and gas, as well as a well-developed transport infrastructure, the country has all the necessary conditions to become a model of successful economic development and sustainable growth in the region. 

Under the leadership of President Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan demonstrates a strategic vision aimed at enhancing national security, deepening regional economic integration, and expanding international cooperation. Through a targeted policy, the country is actively developing its transit and logistics capabilities, increasing its role in global trade. 

Azerbaijan’s influence will continue to grow as the Middle Corridor expands. According to a World Bank report, with the right policies, trade volume along this route could triple by 2030, while transit times could be cut in half. This will have a positive impact on the local and regional economy, creating new jobs, stimulating the development of related industries, and attracting entrepreneurs. 

All these factors contribute to strengthening Azerbaijan’s position as the economic center of the South Caucasus, expanding its trade ties, and increasing its influence on the global stage.

- Can the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) become an alternative integration bloc, countering the European Union (EU) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU)? What challenges does the OTS face in forming a common economic and defense strategy?

-In 2021, at the 8th Summit of the Cooperation Council of Turkic-Speaking States in Istanbul, the organization was renamed the Organization of Turkic States. This decision marked an important step in strengthening Turkic cooperation, highlighting the participants' desire for closer integration. During the same summit, Turkmenistan was granted observer status, expanding the organization’s geographical scope.

The OTS brings together Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan, with Turkmenistan as an observer. The main goal of the organization is to enhance comprehensive interaction between Turkic-speaking countries and contribute collectively to ensuring peace and stability both in the region and globally.

Additionally, at the 2023 summit, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev proposed the creation of the Council of Turkic Central Banks and the Common Turkic Patent Organization, which could be significant steps toward deepening economic coordination among the member states. The OTS also addresses defense and security issues. In November 2023, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev suggested developing a roadmap for defense and defense industry cooperation within the OTS. The former Kyrgyz Ambassador to Azerbaijan, Kayrat Osmonaliyev, supported the idea of creating a collective security system for the Turkic world.

These initiatives indicate the potential development of the OTS into a military-political alliance. However, it is important to note that Türkiye remains a member of NATO, which could impose certain limitations on the format of defense cooperation within the organization.

The Organization of Turkic States continues to grow as a powerful international structure, uniting countries not only based on historical and cultural ties but also through economic, technological, and defense initiatives. With further strengthening of its institutions and coordination of actions among its member states, the OTS could become an influential geopolitical and economic center in Eurasia.

-How will the change in the U.S. administration affect the functioning of the Middle Corridor?

- The C5+1 format was created as a platform for interaction between the U.S. and five Central Asian countries – Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan – to discuss and address issues of mutual interest. During the first ministerial meeting in November 2015, the parties agreed to develop regional initiatives in security, economics, and environmental matters.

One of the key areas of cooperation remains the digitization and modernization of trade routes, which includes the use of digital technologies for monitoring and reducing delays at border points.

The creation of a unified and compatible structure could accelerate the digital transformation of logistics processes, thus facilitating the development of the Middle Corridor.

The election of Donald Trump in 2024 marked a return to a conservative and protectionist policy, focused on strengthening the national economy and revising international agreements in the interests of the U.S. This has already begun to radically change Washington’s stance on the global stage, impacting Central Asia and the Middle Corridor. The Trump administration concentrated its policies on countering China, which is the largest stakeholder in the Middle Corridor. Key measures include expanding trade sanctions against Chinese technologies and companies, banning the operations of Chinese digital giants such as TikTok and other IT companies in the U.S., as well as increasing U.S. military presence in Asia. The latter could increase instability in the region and indirectly affect the transit routes.

-What key challenges and opportunities does the new U.S. administration's policy create for Central Asia and the OTS?

-Sanctions against China could hinder the development of infrastructure projects involving Chinese companies. However, this may create new opportunities for OTS and Central Asian countries to attract alternative investors from Europe, Türkiye, and the Gulf states.

At the same time, Washington's policy does not include winding down the C5+1 initiative. On the contrary, the U.S. intends to continue cooperation with Central Asian countries, focusing particularly on issues of security and counterterrorism, including the development of border security programs. Furthermore, the U.S. will support economic engagement, promoting trade development and infrastructure modernization. Environmental projects aimed at mitigating the effects of climate change and ensuring the region’s sustainable development will also play an important role on the agenda.

The Organization of Turkic States may strengthen its position as an alternative power center in Eurasia. Amid growing tensions between the U.S. and China, the OTS has an opportunity to consolidate trade and logistics flows by expanding cooperation with the EU, Türkiye, Middle Eastern countries, and South Asia.

However, there are risks associated with potential U.S. pressure on OTS members, particularly concerning cooperation with China and Russia. The countries of the region will need to balance relations with these geopolitical players, ensuring national interests while developing sovereign initiatives under the Middle Corridor and other integration projects.

Overall, the policy of the new U.S. administration presents both challenges and new opportunities for Central Asia, the OTS, and the Middle Corridor. Despite global changes, the C5+1 format will remain and continue to contribute to the region's development. However, countries in Central Asia and the OTS will need to show flexibility and strategic thinking to adapt to the new realities of global politics.